Sunday, October 01, 2006
Chattering Monkeys
These comments were taken from Shoe Shine Boy's Blog.
We are now clearly in the mainstream thought that all money should be removed from the markets, removed from real estate and placed into gold. For when the world comes to an end your gold will be worth a fortune and you can then buy back all your assets and have plenty to spare.
The dead cat has bounced a bit, but not nearly the move that real assets are experiencing. We will see which one will last.
Play with the monkeys, or use your mind....
75 Comments:Interesting. I have been saying this all along and I was joking about gold "it never goes down/they don't make any more gold" bullies.
This is what happens when there is a bubble and a lot of clueless amateur speculators.
It is sad that people who talk about RE bubble are unable to see another bubble.
I think gold is a good hedge and investment (but not now since all those speculators have driven the price too high). The right time to buy gold was 4 years ago when all clueless speculators were not yelling out this.
Maybe gold bullies learn their lessons (just as dotcom and RE speculators). There is no easy money and guaranteed profit (despite what you may hear on TV or blogs)
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:22:13 PM
what a ride
you did say there would be wild swings but woah
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:23:18 PM
That article is rich with idiocy. They are saying that gold is high because of the fundamentals and yet people wishing to cash out their profit brings the price of gold down to where it began.
How silly! If people are profit taking because the price of gold is high then you would expect people to STOP PROFIT TAKING when the price of gold goes down, right, right?
If you ask me, over the past two months we saw the stupid money getting in just as the smart money was getting out, and once again, the last fools were left holding the bag.
Lets watch this closely because the rise and fall of the gold bubble is a fast-forward version of the housing bubble.
And here is the Thinker's million dollar prediction, there will be an asset class that will start to skyrocket soon enough. The smart money will have to go somewhere next. I just don't yet know where, I will have to do a little more thinking and get back to you.
By The Thinker, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:26:49 PM
It aint over yet. It only takes fuel to mine it and with the hurricane season upon us its my guess that inflation will rekindle the feaver soon.
Wait till you see the elephant!
I'll take a pile of the color at lower prices over a pile of the paper any day.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:32:31 PM
Shiny yellow metal with several useful commercial and industrial properties. Formerly used as currency now a commodity that tracks the commercial and industrial metals group with an additional speculative component because so many people still don't understand the definition of "formerly."
By Robert Coté, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:32:45 PM
Once you start hearing about the next "never goes down" asset class on internet boards, it is too late. Smart money is there already selling to new suckers (that's you).
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:37:13 PM
And here is the Thinker's million dollar prediction, there will be an asset class that will start to skyrocket soon enough. The smart money will have to go somewhere next. I just don't yet know where, I will have to do a little more thinking and get back to you.
-could it be shorting stocks and put options?
By Keith, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:37:58 PM
autofx.......where aaaarrreee you?????
how are your metals predictions doing now?
By auto effects, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:43:49 PM
Gold and silver needed this correction. They had moved up parabolically due to speculative and leveraged buying, and that is unsustainable. Alos, Bernanke has convinced markets that the Fed is determined to nip inflation in the bud and the housing market be damned. Long term fundamentals for gold and silver, especially silver, still quite excellent. Silver below $10 is a longterm buy and hold - but wait until mid-July for true bottom; same for gold.
Trillion dollar question: can Bernanke save the dollar whilst not causing a depression by collapsing the RE market. The debt levels and RE prices are insane and excessive. Present interest rates are not that high in historic context - yet look how they have whacked the residential RE market already. IMHO, given the US triple deficits and the boomer benefits/SS tsunami coming soon to a market near you, I don't see how Bernanke will not have to raise rates substantially more to keep attracting foriegn cash into our debt instruments and not have to monetize massive amounts of debt (highly inflationary)- yet I suspect that the RE patient is already moribund and hanging on for dear life. RE prices on the coasts and select bubble markets are completely and utterly excessive and a massive correction is needed.
The US economy is riding the razor's edge between defaltionary depression and hyperinflation. I feel soory for anyone who paid too much for a house in the last three years: you are in for a major bruising, if not financial amputation.
Good luck to all.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:51:59 PM
Gold is like guns. You have to have them but you don't want to have to use them. I bought gold/silver 3/2001, 10% of net worth. What I do not understand is the perpetual preoccupation with common stock. Is it this generations defining characteristic to turn everything into oh, so common stock, must everying be a gamble, a bubble.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:52:54 PM
A bit offtopic but interesting article:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/bg1820.cfm
Basically, the study says that the US deficit is not that bad.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:56:10 PM
Just reassures me that I didn't "miss the boat" after all.
I did lose $70 on that silver I bought when it was $14/oz. Ah well... could be a whole lot worse! And now I know not to trust sudden fast rallies. Everyone loses once in a while.
By BGManofID, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:57:29 PM
some housing bubble blog guy told me to buy @ $700+. He must be corrupt and greedy.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:01:25 PM
I am thinking about buying gold coins. So far just thinking, but the price has come down pretty fast. Bloody fast.
$604 for Maple Leafs today.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:17:40 PM
at least you can live in your gold coins...and they pay dividends...oh wait, they dont.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:25:34 PM
I heard it said that the stock market has traditionally done well in times of inflation because businesses are more able to raise prices above and beyond what is necessary to respond to increased costs.
That being said, I have always found it perverse that the stock market goes up when bad figures come out because people think bad figures will lead to a rate decrease. I think investors find justifications for doing what they want to do and then just follow the herd...
I am bullish on stocks.
So that's the Thinker's play-of-the-day for June 13, 2006, S&P at "5001,223.68"
I am sure someone on this blog will let me hear about it if I am wrong. Lets check back on this in 4 months time and see how I did, shall we?
By The Thinker, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:41:57 PM
Careful. Some people are hurting today, but we'd like them back in the blog tomorrow. Gloating isnt nice.
The gold meltdown is another lesson of the risks of seeking the magic investment bullet. Your own hot money better be expendable if you try to chase these things. My own opinion (not a professional one) is that we are going to have a challenging time preserving wealth, and seeking more than that will be quite risky. If you are renting with a pile of cash, why risk the cash if you "know" that the target of the cash (a house) will be cheaper soon?
By SidneyPrice, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:48:15 PM
I am buying me some nice grillz with my gold
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:54:02 PM
The comments here are hilarious, especially the [non]"thinker".
There was a great deal of talk like this in late 2005. It was December of 2005, to be more precise.
There had been good runup in gold, spiking at around $540. The gold bulls got all excited, and lots of amateurs started to buy at that point, only to be disappointed by a pullback to less than $500.
"Oh my God, what happened???" they cried. They couldn't believe they were denied their quick profit. This happens all the time to those who buy at tops during times of great hype.
Now, take a look at this last runup from mid-March to mid-May of 2006. A HUGE runup, to be sure. And now we've retraced downward more than 50% of that runup. What could be behind this? Might certain forces be working to shake the weak hands out of the metals market so THEY can buy at lower prices?
Again, mark my words: gold is not about to collapse.
And to compare the housing market to the metals market, and to say that one is a fast-motion version of the other, is utterly ignorant.
The smart money will have been buying metals ON THE WAY DOWN, SOME BUYING LARGER LOT SIZES AS THE PRICE WENT DOWN.
If you aren't smart enough to buy at relatively low prices, you'll always just be part of the mindless mob.
Good luck, you lumpens! You'll need it!
To the guy who wrote:
A bit offtopic but interesting article:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/bg1820.cfm
Basically, the study says that the US deficit is not that bad.
Uh, that article was date Feb 2005.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:56:05 PM
SidneyPrice said...
The gold meltdown is another lesson of the risks of seeking the magic investment bullet.
Meltdown, huh? I guess it would look that way to those who bought around $700/ounce.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:57:43 PM
To those of you with any guts at all:
Take $1k and buy some silver at this current bargain price.
If it falls, buy some more.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:59:05 PM
http://www.traderscorporation.com/
His free blog on stockcharts: http://tinyurl.com/wzrk
Jack Chan's the man!
Signals and sets-ups, not analysis and attitude.
I once was long, but now am short, to paraphrase a religious song.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:00:49 PM
Seriously, can we all shout out a collective "we are not worthy" to The Thinker?
Thinker, it would be amazing if you started your own blog - Keith, no disrespect, but The Thinker's occasional posts make the discussions worth reading.
Of course, the main articles that you post with your comments are great reading...I speak only of the subsequent discussions.
Party on,
Joey
By Joey, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:01:08 PM
This is what you call a sale.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:01:54 PM
Thinker: "I heard it said that the stock market has traditionally done well in times of inflation because businesses are more able to raise prices above and beyond what is necessary to respond to increased costs."
Certain businesses can do just that. These are the ones that Warren Buffet has made his fortune and why I decided to go long BRK-A. Lots of cash, exceptionally strong free chashflow, ability to index to infaltion, etc. With all the uncertainty, what is not to like about BRK?
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:02:57 PM
The gold meltdown is another lesson of the risks of seeking the magic investment bullet.
Meltdown, huh? I guess it would look that way to those who bought around $700/ounce.
Well, yeah, it would. A few weeks ago people were being advised in this blog to buy gold, not buy-gold-after-an-imminent-market-correction.
By SidneyPrice, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:04:07 PM
Ummm...last Anon, do you really expect us to believe that you are long BRK-A? How many shares do you own?
By Joey, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:08:54 PM
Has anyone else noticed how short term most of our expectations have become?
Everyone wants to get rich...and right away dammit! It's all part of the what I call the American InstantCulture. We want what we want and we want it NOW!
The result is everyone chases the latest thing to go up a lot in price. 2 years ago it was houses, earlier this year it was gold, in 1999 it was internet stocks. And of course this is almost always the recipe to LOSE a lot of money 'right now'...
There's even a daily newspaper, Investors Business Daily, that is entirely set up for momentum investors. They brag about how the CANSLIM system is the road to fast and fabulous riches. I bet almost NO ONE can actually successfully use that system however.
Wealth accumulation takes a while and involves work, investment and persistance. Betting on the horses doesn't. Too many people are, in one way or another, 'betting on the horses'...
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:15:02 PM
Here's a fun exercise.....
Read all of Keith's GOLD articles in Apr/May.....substitute the word "Gold" with "Real Estate".
The exact stuff that Keith was saying about Gold is the exact crap that he rails about from the Real Estate Complex.
I am glad Gold fell.
By interesting, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:25:22 PM
SidneyPrice said...
Meltdown, huh? I guess it would look that way to those who bought around $700/ounce.
Well, yeah, it would. A few weeks ago people were being advised in this blog to buy gold, not buy-gold-after-an-imminent-market-correction.
Don't get your investment advice from a blog, for cryin' out loud.
Keith has shown repeatedly he is an amateurish, fumbling trader. His specialty is digging up articles that reinforce his stance that we are seeing a housing market meltdown. I think he's right.
As for the metals market, the fundamental bull case is sound. The fiat money system is in big trouble and the world's central banks know this, so when the metals went parabolic, that scared the sh*t out of government econ/finance wonks, because they thought the jig was up. They thought the public had caught on to the smoke and mirrors.
If private ownership of gold and silver becomes commonplace, the current finance institutions, public and private, could be in deep doo-doo. As in lots of the peopel in those institutions UNEMPLOYED.
So we have seen a whole rash of govt action, in collusion with key players on Wall Street and elsewhere, designed to restore faith in the fiat system and crush all the silly little people who thought they were going to become wealthy through acquisition of precious metals.
If all this is confusing, you're in good company. Warren Buffett was very sure the dollar was going to drop in 2005. It didn't and he lost a lot of money.
Greenspan has been out recently saying he doesn't think housing is going to collapse. He's saying that because those who are terrified it WILL collapse asked him to say that.
If this thing does collapse -- this "thing" being the biggest financial bubble in all of history -- the shock waves will be horrific. Governments will NOT want precious metal in the hands of private citizens. THEY will want to possess as much of it as they can.
And by masterfully manipulating the psyches of the masses, they are, as I write this, silently stocking world banks with more and more physical metal, acquiring it at the moment AT BARGAIN PRICES.
You can think I'm cracked, I don't care.
I just don't want to know I never tried to warn people.
Good luck!
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:27:55 PM
LMAO - "gold meltdown" - this bull has just begun to buck and kick - the weak sold -
My prediction - gold $1650 in one year.
By Richard, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:29:09 PM
Gold fell because rates are rising and CB's are squeezing liquity from the system......right now.
If they start again when the recession begins, Gold will start to fly right back up.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:37:39 PM
i look at gold as wealth preservation, not an investment. gold is not an investment. I bought and buying more to protect against the dollar, goepolitics, etc. gold is an investment only if there's a scheme to pump/dump/manipulate it similar to RE and the stock market. such scheme, the leasing of gold by central banks and probably other schemes exist. Eventually, I think gold will recover.
i think in few months or years, the effect of "Monopoly(R)" money will manifest, nationally, and/or globally. And if gold is not the or "a" way to protect wealth, I'm open to what you think would/will be. thoughts?
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:42:27 PM
Dear autophx
Thanks for your thoughtful post. I take the financial advice on this and other blogs with skepticism, but thats the way to evaluate all advice. Often the recommendations made here are soundly based. Its one of the reasons I read the blog. Keith's showmanship is icing on the cake.
By SidneyPrice, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:46:09 PM
Don't know about FX, but like him, I'm more into silver than gold.
I started buying early 03, seen this big pull back thing before (April 04).
I bought most of mine at below $5 an oz, and even if it drops down as low as $6 as some pundits have said, I'm still in front compared to sticking it in a savings account.
I'm in this for the long haul, and see $20 an oz (for silver) by year end.
Steady away I'll keep buying the dips, in 5years time we'll see who's still laughing.
By Budvarr, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:48:22 PM
If the sky is falling in every asset class, stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, where is the safe haven for the recession we are about to enter? Booze and gambling????
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:49:04 PM
Investment Recommendation:
Sell Gold
Buy 9mm
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:55:09 PM
"Buy 9mm"
Don't make me laugh, most folk couldn't hit a barn door with a blunderbuss!!
Now even if someone can do 2" groups with a pistol at 10yds, very very few people are born killers.
To make a point, I have a nice fluffy bunny here, who could break its neck with their bare hands, and who has actually done it?
By Budvarr, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:14:57 PM
Richard said...
LMAO - "gold meltdown" - this bull has just begun to buck and kick - the weak sold -
My prediction - gold $1650 in one year.
It wouldn't surprise me. Though I'm not counting on it.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:19:41 PM
Anonymous said...
If the sky is falling in every asset class, stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, where is the safe haven for the recession we are about to enter?
Just lately, the US Dollar has been an excellent short-term profit-maker.
The gummint WANTS you to think the USD is the safe haven.
Hahahaha! What a joke.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:20:47 PM
Who on this board was investing or trading in 1974, or lost/bought real estate during the S&L crisis?
-------------------------------------
Snippets from the incomparible Richard Russell and http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/
June 13, 2006
...Here's one thought that's never left my mind, and this is it -- at the lows of 2002, stocks never got anywhere near undervaluation. In other words, at the 2002 lows there was nothing that even hinted of a classic, "great valuation" bear market bottom. In my opinion, the bear market that started in 2000 never ended. For that reason, I believe the end of the bear market lies somewhere ahead.
-----------------------------------
Gold -- The Fed undoubtedly feared and disliked the rise in gold to over 700. Regardless of what they say, in their guts the Fed crowd knows that surging gold is an indication of inflation. But what can the Fed think now that gold is collapsing? Thoughts of deflation must be entering their mind.
...Should they stay with their anti-inflation stance and raise rates once more, should they ease up on that stance, or should they be actively trying to re-stimulate the economy? And most important -- do they dare to raise rates again at the end of June?
-------------------------------------
Remember, huge amounts of debt are basically deflationary. Thus, not to inflate enough is to invite deflation. The massive edifice of debt means that the Fed must inflate -- it's a case of "inflate or die." The inflation-deflation pendulum is now swinging wildly. The Fed's back is against the wall. It must soon, very soon, reversal itself and move back to INFLATION MODE.
Remember, and I want to re-emphasize this -- nobody -- and I mean nobody -- is thinking in terms of what I talked about at the beginning of this site. I'm talking about this being a resumption of the primary bear market.
If I'm correct, we're going to be hearing the word "bankruptcy" coming up rather often as the bear market moves along. I remember at the frightening 1974 lows, the fear was that anything you bought or owned was a possible candidate for bankruptcy. That's how deep the fear went.
I want to remind subscribers that there's only one item that can't go bankrupt -- that item is real money -- gold. The truth of this statement will emerge as we move along. And it's something that every one of my subscribers should keep firmly in mind.
--------------------------------------
CONCLUSION -- The Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq are now all down for the year -- the whole year's gains have been wiped out as of today.
I don't care what the Fed or anyone else says, this is deflationary action in the markets, and the markets always lead the economy. If this brand of selling continues, it going to hit what's MOST VULNERABLE in the ECONOMY. Two items that are "most vulnerable" -- the dollar and debt.
Where are the islands of safety? The initial islands of safety are dollars and T-bills. The ultimate island of safety is gold. So far, investors are rushing to the dollar and T-bills (notice, not so much to bonds). The second phase of this bear market will see a major rush back to gold.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:20:49 PM
SidneyPrice said...
Dear autophx
Thanks for your thoughtful post...Keith's showmanship is icing on the cake.
It IS a very entertaining blog.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:22:51 PM
Where are the islands of safety? The initial islands of safety are dollars and T-bills. The ultimate island of safety is gold. So far, investors are rushing to the dollar and T-bills (notice, not so much to bonds). The second phase of this bear market will see a major rush back to gold.
Yes, let's ponder something.
For the stock market to fall as it has, and for the commodities to be sold as they have, some big players have to be involved.
These big players are building up $$$CASH$$$ in a BIG WAY.
What if they set their sights on the metals shortly, with plenty of cash in their pockets?
Big events are unfolding, hang on to your hat.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:25:11 PM
Cash is king = smart money
At least in the short term, "smart money" is going to cash. I predicted someone on the blog that when a recession/depression begins, people do NOT buy ANYTHING - gold, stocks, etc. . .T-bills or cash is where smart money will go. It is now clear that we are headed into a deep recession, and global slowdown. . .even oil is trending lower. When the smoke clears, there will be some great values in stocks. . .Motley Fool already was talking about shipping stocks today which yield 20% dividends have tanked also. . .lots of 7%,10% and 15% dividend yields out there right now. . .but people don't want to risk cas.
By Mark in San Diego, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:28:06 PM
RE: "Trillion dollar question: can Bernanke save the dollar whilst not causing a depression by collapsing the RE market."
I think this is indeed the most compelling question now. IMO, I think Bernanke will continue to impliment 'token' rate increases to give the appearance of fighting inflation. In the meantime, inflation will soar past interest rate hikes. This may serve the middle ground. Housing prices will 'back-into' the inflating dollar with possibly the least amount of pain and suffering.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:31:08 PM
For the record, I just purchased several pounds of silver at $9.82/ounce.
Could it go lower? You bet. Am I worried? Not one bit.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:32:45 PM
autofx you're probably right. The new guy at Treasury is an insider and that means they expect to need a man with his skills in the comming months. They have to bring long-term rates down and create som new ways for millions of people with no or negative equity to refi their mortgages. How will they buy off the bond crowd this time?
People who watch charts for a living tell me the S&P breaking under 1240 is a BIG deal, and the market is toast from a technical perspective.
There is no way the Fed can allow BOTH the stock market and housing values to tank simultaneously. They will "manage" the situation, and the price of gold will be their report card. How long can they stretch it out? My guess is another 5-10 years.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:36:58 PM
To make a point, I have a nice fluffy bunny here, who could break its neck with their bare hands, and who has actually done it?
---------------------------------------
My (then) girlfriend had a pet rabbit that tore up my rugs and chewed molding and wiring in my bachelor pad $230K Falls Church townhouse that Zillows out now for the ridiculous amount of $550K. In a fit of displaced anger, I did kill a "meat rabbit" with my bare hands while driving around with her in the Virginia countryside, cooked it and ate it.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:47:48 PM
Biggest threat to the economy as per BB is inflation? Who is this inflation monster? (ItÂs the Fed) The Fed will fight inflation? During a war? With housing collapsing? Ha Ha The IMF just reported that Central Banks are double counting their Gold suppy. ÂSo much gold has been double counted already that if the all the owners asked for delivery of their gold, there wouldnÂt be enough of it in the world to make good on all the claims of ownership. Ha Ha A big paper game! Buy Physical Gold as a way to insure your portfolio over a long term. If you buy ETFÂs that will not convert to physical delivery you may be buying iouÂs that are backed by more iouÂs and joining in the paper game. If you have doubts about the financial management of the USA (which you should by now) then convert 5-20% of your liquid net worth into precious metals slowly over time by buying the dips. This time itÂs different! Ha Ha Gold has been at the center of monetary history for thousands of years. Gold has backed our currency since our founding up until in 1971 we found a new way based on faith. Now some Ivy League boys think that itÂs different and Gold is an archaic unsophisticated relic. Well itÂs not different.
By Tom, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:57:13 PM
I sold GLD early this morning before things really started to get bad. I say don't catch a falling knife...wait for a little more stabilization in the price. We also need indications that the Fed will stop raising rates before we get some support in the price of precious metals. I'm thinking August will be about the right time to consider getting back in.
By Chris G, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:24:34 AM
Here's some good links to find out what's really going on.
http://tinyurl.com/z4cal
http://tinyurl.com/j7gl2
http://tinyurl.com/qqqcm
By Tom, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:31:36 AM
Chris G said...
I'm thinking August will be about the right time to consider getting back in.
--------------------------------------
Before you go back in, check out Jack Chan's signals and set-ups.
His free blog on stockcharts: http://tinyurl.com/wzrk
I am leveraged/margined and short right now but will reverse to long (or go flat) per Jack's signals. He does not favor leverage, and his system is best for unleveraged vehicles such as GLD or mutual funds, especially to control losses (3%).
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:46:28 AM
This is what happens when there is a bubble and a lot of clueless amateur speculators.
It is sad that people who talk about RE bubble are unable to see another bubble.
My personal theory is Kieth had to sell his condo to move to England. Knew he couldn't buy in for a year or two, and hope for the bubble to pop.
Nothing but shear luck.
His bubble blog will be over when he moves back home and needs to buy a house.
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:00:12 AM
The crash in copper is where it is at.
The drop in coper signifieds the Chia economic bing is slowing down.with a China slowdown. The world will have oil, timber, copper, coal. the world will be rich again.
By Dogcrap Green, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:02:55 AM
re: gold crash
Such are the ups and downs of speculative bubbles ... in any market.
By uknowwhoiyam, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:40:44 AM
Anonymous said...
How long can they stretch it out? My guess is another 5-10 years.
That's optimistic on their behalf!
What if the PetroEuro advocates have their way? The US dollar won't do well against that.
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:55:26 AM
Anonymous said...
To make a point, I have a nice fluffy bunny here, who could break its neck with their bare hands, and who has actually done it?
...I did kill a "meat rabbit" with my bare hands while driving around with her in the Virginia countryside, cooked it and ate it.
So what is the point? That you're some survivalist tough guy whom we should all be in awe of?
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:56:51 AM
Look at the first chart. You might say, Oh, gold had a nice runup, but look! It crashed! It melted down!
http://tinyurl.com/huy2f
Then look at this second chart to see what came after...
http://tinyurl.com/kzznz
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 3:15:20 AM
I bought my gold when it was still at $480, and most of my silver when it was at $9. I'm still in the black.
I think it's funny how this blog was full of people laughing at Keith for predicting a housing crash... now it's full of people laughing at Keith for making a little mistake over a Matterhorn movement in gold and silver. Geez louise.
Who's worse off... people who actually look at the economy, or those idiots who gobbled up RE at no money down and neg am and interest-only believing that RE only goes up??
Personally, I think all you scoffers are just jealous.
By BGManofID, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:23:13 AM
so bernanke will raise another .25 percent this month, but he better draft and redraft, proofread and spellcheck that damn statement that goes along with it. If there is one wrong syllable in that statement there will be bubbles bursting all over the place, including the bubble known as the world economy.
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:25:25 AM
And here is the Thinker's million dollar prediction, there will be an asset class that will start to skyrocket soon enough. The smart money will have to go somewhere next. I just don't yet know where, I will have to do a little more thinking and get back to you.
I completely agree with you, as I have been contemplating the same thing myself over the past few weeks. However, I'm pretty sure that it isn't hog futures, LOL.
On the long side, I'm thinking education providers should be a good play over the next couple years. When people get canned, some of them go back to school.
By Chris G, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:44:21 AM
Purchases
$325 in 2002, $350 in 2003, $400 in 2004
Is today painful ? Yes.
Am I selling? No.
Is this the end of the gold bull? NO !
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 6:42:03 AM
Is today painful ? Yes.
Am I selling? No.
Is this the end of the gold bull? NO!
Goldbugs with real faith are scrambling to buy more gold today, after yesterday's fall.
So, let's see how sure you are of the bull run ... how much more are you buying today?
By uknowwhoiyam, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:38:50 PM
Gold bugs like me have had a Gold stash for a long time now. I have no faith therefore I own Gold. I would buy more today if I didn't have any. Sit on the fence like a good boy where you feel safe and let Daddy Fed take care of you.
By Tom, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 1:42:44 PM
If you don't believe in gold , think of the logic of cutting down a three thousand dollar tree, turning it into pulp, then paper, put some ink on it then call it a billion dollars. Now that is a theory I want to tie my cart to.
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:51:56 PM
I was talking with the nice old lady at the coin store today as I bought more gold coins. She said that silver is moving pretty well today after the recent drop. She also said that a lot of dealers are not selling at these prices.
Saw a yahoo news clip that said foriegn CBs will be getting into assets other than the US $, like gold. They will also be buying US mortgage backed securities. If a lot of these MBSs are underwater these foriegn CBs will be really pissed of at ANYTHING US $ based.
http://tinyurl.com/g4oc9
By Theyz gonna get reamed, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 6:36:41 PM
uknowwhoiyam said...
Goldbugs with real faith are scrambling to buy more gold today, after yesterday's fall.
So, let's see how sure you are of the bull run ... how much more are you buying today?
Faith? I don't think it requires faith, just education. The fundamental case, based on even a casual study of world economics, is overwhelmingly bullish for gold.
A year ago, when I was casually buying a little gold and silver, I made fun of "gold bugs" and thought they were a little off. Then I started paying attention to their writings on economic history and their compelling analyses of how the fiat money system has been abused by the governments of the world. And I started to understand what they were saying about the supply and demand picture.
If someone who thinks he's a shrewd trader/investor believes it's a bad idea to be buying metals on a beautiful pullback like this, it's not lack of faith.
It's ignorance.
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 7:03:27 PM
I am not sure why people are buying silver coins vs gold coins. The premium on silver eagles is $2 - that is $12 coin at $10 spot. I am paying almost $40 premium on gold coins over spot, so at $600 for the gold coin vs $12 for the silver one that is 50x. 50x $2 premium is $100 premium for every $600 spent. I do not have any idea what the future will hold but I imagine that gold and silver will track pretty much evenly, give or take. If (and I hope it is IF) I ever have to sell coins it will be easier to unload a gold coin to get a couple of weeks spending money vs 50 silver coins. Maybe not, because who knows the future and I would only unload if there was a real need to.
BTW, the sell premium is 2% of spot at this shop. And the transactions are cash. These people do most of their business by mail and phone, very few walk-ups to their little window like I do. They deal all over the US. Amazing for a little shop. If anyone is interested the number is (256) 883-9004.
By Diversification is good, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 7:57:58 PM
I was at the coin shop today and watched a couple bring in a wal-mart plastic bag 1/2 full of large bills in "bricks". They wheeled out 3 pretty boxes of coins.
I only got one. Wish I had a bag full of cash.
By Yes sir, three bags full, at Thursday, June 15, 2006 9:58:31 PM
Hi Friend! You have a great blog over here!
Please accept my compliments and wishes for your happiness and success!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my site:
credit center
It covers credit center related subjects.
Have a great day!
By All the best to you!, at Friday, June 23, 2006 9:04:00 AM
Hello,
Without much luck, I was searching for blogs about Travel when I happened across yours. It's a cool blog. Evidently you like telling it like it is! I have a really great ebay website that is easy to use that you may like. If you get a chance, check it out www.licensedbrandsclub.com.
By maverick, at Monday, June 26, 2006 12:32:36 AM
Nice blog. Keep up the good work.
Regards,
Stock Options Trader
make money from stock
By make money from stock, at Tuesday, July 04, 2006 2:25:35 PM
Your blog I found to be very interesting!
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I have a make real money start free
site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!
By make real money start free, at Friday, July 14, 2006 8:44:40 PM
Hi Blogger, I found your blog quite informative.
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my stock option software site.
Have a great week!
By stock option software, at Saturday, July 15, 2006 1:31:22 AM
Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!
I have a stock market report site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Greetings.
By stock market report, at Thursday, July 20, 2006 8:41:57 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are now clearly in the mainstream thought that all money should be removed from the markets, removed from real estate and placed into gold. For when the world comes to an end your gold will be worth a fortune and you can then buy back all your assets and have plenty to spare.
The dead cat has bounced a bit, but not nearly the move that real assets are experiencing. We will see which one will last.
Play with the monkeys, or use your mind....
75 Comments:Interesting. I have been saying this all along and I was joking about gold "it never goes down/they don't make any more gold" bullies.
This is what happens when there is a bubble and a lot of clueless amateur speculators.
It is sad that people who talk about RE bubble are unable to see another bubble.
I think gold is a good hedge and investment (but not now since all those speculators have driven the price too high). The right time to buy gold was 4 years ago when all clueless speculators were not yelling out this.
Maybe gold bullies learn their lessons (just as dotcom and RE speculators). There is no easy money and guaranteed profit (despite what you may hear on TV or blogs)
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:22:13 PM
what a ride
you did say there would be wild swings but woah
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:23:18 PM
That article is rich with idiocy. They are saying that gold is high because of the fundamentals and yet people wishing to cash out their profit brings the price of gold down to where it began.
How silly! If people are profit taking because the price of gold is high then you would expect people to STOP PROFIT TAKING when the price of gold goes down, right, right?
If you ask me, over the past two months we saw the stupid money getting in just as the smart money was getting out, and once again, the last fools were left holding the bag.
Lets watch this closely because the rise and fall of the gold bubble is a fast-forward version of the housing bubble.
And here is the Thinker's million dollar prediction, there will be an asset class that will start to skyrocket soon enough. The smart money will have to go somewhere next. I just don't yet know where, I will have to do a little more thinking and get back to you.
By The Thinker, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:26:49 PM
It aint over yet. It only takes fuel to mine it and with the hurricane season upon us its my guess that inflation will rekindle the feaver soon.
Wait till you see the elephant!
I'll take a pile of the color at lower prices over a pile of the paper any day.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:32:31 PM
Shiny yellow metal with several useful commercial and industrial properties. Formerly used as currency now a commodity that tracks the commercial and industrial metals group with an additional speculative component because so many people still don't understand the definition of "formerly."
By Robert Coté, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:32:45 PM
Once you start hearing about the next "never goes down" asset class on internet boards, it is too late. Smart money is there already selling to new suckers (that's you).
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:37:13 PM
And here is the Thinker's million dollar prediction, there will be an asset class that will start to skyrocket soon enough. The smart money will have to go somewhere next. I just don't yet know where, I will have to do a little more thinking and get back to you.
-could it be shorting stocks and put options?
By Keith, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:37:58 PM
autofx.......where aaaarrreee you?????
how are your metals predictions doing now?
By auto effects, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:43:49 PM
Gold and silver needed this correction. They had moved up parabolically due to speculative and leveraged buying, and that is unsustainable. Alos, Bernanke has convinced markets that the Fed is determined to nip inflation in the bud and the housing market be damned. Long term fundamentals for gold and silver, especially silver, still quite excellent. Silver below $10 is a longterm buy and hold - but wait until mid-July for true bottom; same for gold.
Trillion dollar question: can Bernanke save the dollar whilst not causing a depression by collapsing the RE market. The debt levels and RE prices are insane and excessive. Present interest rates are not that high in historic context - yet look how they have whacked the residential RE market already. IMHO, given the US triple deficits and the boomer benefits/SS tsunami coming soon to a market near you, I don't see how Bernanke will not have to raise rates substantially more to keep attracting foriegn cash into our debt instruments and not have to monetize massive amounts of debt (highly inflationary)- yet I suspect that the RE patient is already moribund and hanging on for dear life. RE prices on the coasts and select bubble markets are completely and utterly excessive and a massive correction is needed.
The US economy is riding the razor's edge between defaltionary depression and hyperinflation. I feel soory for anyone who paid too much for a house in the last three years: you are in for a major bruising, if not financial amputation.
Good luck to all.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:51:59 PM
Gold is like guns. You have to have them but you don't want to have to use them. I bought gold/silver 3/2001, 10% of net worth. What I do not understand is the perpetual preoccupation with common stock. Is it this generations defining characteristic to turn everything into oh, so common stock, must everying be a gamble, a bubble.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:52:54 PM
A bit offtopic but interesting article:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/bg1820.cfm
Basically, the study says that the US deficit is not that bad.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:56:10 PM
Just reassures me that I didn't "miss the boat" after all.
I did lose $70 on that silver I bought when it was $14/oz. Ah well... could be a whole lot worse! And now I know not to trust sudden fast rallies. Everyone loses once in a while.
By BGManofID, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:57:29 PM
some housing bubble blog guy told me to buy @ $700+. He must be corrupt and greedy.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:01:25 PM
I am thinking about buying gold coins. So far just thinking, but the price has come down pretty fast. Bloody fast.
$604 for Maple Leafs today.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:17:40 PM
at least you can live in your gold coins...and they pay dividends...oh wait, they dont.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:25:34 PM
I heard it said that the stock market has traditionally done well in times of inflation because businesses are more able to raise prices above and beyond what is necessary to respond to increased costs.
That being said, I have always found it perverse that the stock market goes up when bad figures come out because people think bad figures will lead to a rate decrease. I think investors find justifications for doing what they want to do and then just follow the herd...
I am bullish on stocks.
So that's the Thinker's play-of-the-day for June 13, 2006, S&P at "5001,223.68"
I am sure someone on this blog will let me hear about it if I am wrong. Lets check back on this in 4 months time and see how I did, shall we?
By The Thinker, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:41:57 PM
Careful. Some people are hurting today, but we'd like them back in the blog tomorrow. Gloating isnt nice.
The gold meltdown is another lesson of the risks of seeking the magic investment bullet. Your own hot money better be expendable if you try to chase these things. My own opinion (not a professional one) is that we are going to have a challenging time preserving wealth, and seeking more than that will be quite risky. If you are renting with a pile of cash, why risk the cash if you "know" that the target of the cash (a house) will be cheaper soon?
By SidneyPrice, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:48:15 PM
I am buying me some nice grillz with my gold
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:54:02 PM
The comments here are hilarious, especially the [non]"thinker".
There was a great deal of talk like this in late 2005. It was December of 2005, to be more precise.
There had been good runup in gold, spiking at around $540. The gold bulls got all excited, and lots of amateurs started to buy at that point, only to be disappointed by a pullback to less than $500.
"Oh my God, what happened???" they cried. They couldn't believe they were denied their quick profit. This happens all the time to those who buy at tops during times of great hype.
Now, take a look at this last runup from mid-March to mid-May of 2006. A HUGE runup, to be sure. And now we've retraced downward more than 50% of that runup. What could be behind this? Might certain forces be working to shake the weak hands out of the metals market so THEY can buy at lower prices?
Again, mark my words: gold is not about to collapse.
And to compare the housing market to the metals market, and to say that one is a fast-motion version of the other, is utterly ignorant.
The smart money will have been buying metals ON THE WAY DOWN, SOME BUYING LARGER LOT SIZES AS THE PRICE WENT DOWN.
If you aren't smart enough to buy at relatively low prices, you'll always just be part of the mindless mob.
Good luck, you lumpens! You'll need it!
To the guy who wrote:
A bit offtopic but interesting article:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/bg1820.cfm
Basically, the study says that the US deficit is not that bad.
Uh, that article was date Feb 2005.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:56:05 PM
SidneyPrice said...
The gold meltdown is another lesson of the risks of seeking the magic investment bullet.
Meltdown, huh? I guess it would look that way to those who bought around $700/ounce.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:57:43 PM
To those of you with any guts at all:
Take $1k and buy some silver at this current bargain price.
If it falls, buy some more.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 9:59:05 PM
http://www.traderscorporation.com/
His free blog on stockcharts: http://tinyurl.com/wzrk
Jack Chan's the man!
Signals and sets-ups, not analysis and attitude.
I once was long, but now am short, to paraphrase a religious song.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:00:49 PM
Seriously, can we all shout out a collective "we are not worthy" to The Thinker?
Thinker, it would be amazing if you started your own blog - Keith, no disrespect, but The Thinker's occasional posts make the discussions worth reading.
Of course, the main articles that you post with your comments are great reading...I speak only of the subsequent discussions.
Party on,
Joey
By Joey, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:01:08 PM
This is what you call a sale.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:01:54 PM
Thinker: "I heard it said that the stock market has traditionally done well in times of inflation because businesses are more able to raise prices above and beyond what is necessary to respond to increased costs."
Certain businesses can do just that. These are the ones that Warren Buffet has made his fortune and why I decided to go long BRK-A. Lots of cash, exceptionally strong free chashflow, ability to index to infaltion, etc. With all the uncertainty, what is not to like about BRK?
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:02:57 PM
The gold meltdown is another lesson of the risks of seeking the magic investment bullet.
Meltdown, huh? I guess it would look that way to those who bought around $700/ounce.
Well, yeah, it would. A few weeks ago people were being advised in this blog to buy gold, not buy-gold-after-an-imminent-market-correction.
By SidneyPrice, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:04:07 PM
Ummm...last Anon, do you really expect us to believe that you are long BRK-A? How many shares do you own?
By Joey, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:08:54 PM
Has anyone else noticed how short term most of our expectations have become?
Everyone wants to get rich...and right away dammit! It's all part of the what I call the American InstantCulture. We want what we want and we want it NOW!
The result is everyone chases the latest thing to go up a lot in price. 2 years ago it was houses, earlier this year it was gold, in 1999 it was internet stocks. And of course this is almost always the recipe to LOSE a lot of money 'right now'...
There's even a daily newspaper, Investors Business Daily, that is entirely set up for momentum investors. They brag about how the CANSLIM system is the road to fast and fabulous riches. I bet almost NO ONE can actually successfully use that system however.
Wealth accumulation takes a while and involves work, investment and persistance. Betting on the horses doesn't. Too many people are, in one way or another, 'betting on the horses'...
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:15:02 PM
Here's a fun exercise.....
Read all of Keith's GOLD articles in Apr/May.....substitute the word "Gold" with "Real Estate".
The exact stuff that Keith was saying about Gold is the exact crap that he rails about from the Real Estate Complex.
I am glad Gold fell.
By interesting, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:25:22 PM
SidneyPrice said...
Meltdown, huh? I guess it would look that way to those who bought around $700/ounce.
Well, yeah, it would. A few weeks ago people were being advised in this blog to buy gold, not buy-gold-after-an-imminent-market-correction.
Don't get your investment advice from a blog, for cryin' out loud.
Keith has shown repeatedly he is an amateurish, fumbling trader. His specialty is digging up articles that reinforce his stance that we are seeing a housing market meltdown. I think he's right.
As for the metals market, the fundamental bull case is sound. The fiat money system is in big trouble and the world's central banks know this, so when the metals went parabolic, that scared the sh*t out of government econ/finance wonks, because they thought the jig was up. They thought the public had caught on to the smoke and mirrors.
If private ownership of gold and silver becomes commonplace, the current finance institutions, public and private, could be in deep doo-doo. As in lots of the peopel in those institutions UNEMPLOYED.
So we have seen a whole rash of govt action, in collusion with key players on Wall Street and elsewhere, designed to restore faith in the fiat system and crush all the silly little people who thought they were going to become wealthy through acquisition of precious metals.
If all this is confusing, you're in good company. Warren Buffett was very sure the dollar was going to drop in 2005. It didn't and he lost a lot of money.
Greenspan has been out recently saying he doesn't think housing is going to collapse. He's saying that because those who are terrified it WILL collapse asked him to say that.
If this thing does collapse -- this "thing" being the biggest financial bubble in all of history -- the shock waves will be horrific. Governments will NOT want precious metal in the hands of private citizens. THEY will want to possess as much of it as they can.
And by masterfully manipulating the psyches of the masses, they are, as I write this, silently stocking world banks with more and more physical metal, acquiring it at the moment AT BARGAIN PRICES.
You can think I'm cracked, I don't care.
I just don't want to know I never tried to warn people.
Good luck!
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:27:55 PM
LMAO - "gold meltdown" - this bull has just begun to buck and kick - the weak sold -
My prediction - gold $1650 in one year.
By Richard, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:29:09 PM
Gold fell because rates are rising and CB's are squeezing liquity from the system......right now.
If they start again when the recession begins, Gold will start to fly right back up.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:37:39 PM
i look at gold as wealth preservation, not an investment. gold is not an investment. I bought and buying more to protect against the dollar, goepolitics, etc. gold is an investment only if there's a scheme to pump/dump/manipulate it similar to RE and the stock market. such scheme, the leasing of gold by central banks and probably other schemes exist. Eventually, I think gold will recover.
i think in few months or years, the effect of "Monopoly(R)" money will manifest, nationally, and/or globally. And if gold is not the or "a" way to protect wealth, I'm open to what you think would/will be. thoughts?
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:42:27 PM
Dear autophx
Thanks for your thoughtful post. I take the financial advice on this and other blogs with skepticism, but thats the way to evaluate all advice. Often the recommendations made here are soundly based. Its one of the reasons I read the blog. Keith's showmanship is icing on the cake.
By SidneyPrice, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:46:09 PM
Don't know about FX, but like him, I'm more into silver than gold.
I started buying early 03, seen this big pull back thing before (April 04).
I bought most of mine at below $5 an oz, and even if it drops down as low as $6 as some pundits have said, I'm still in front compared to sticking it in a savings account.
I'm in this for the long haul, and see $20 an oz (for silver) by year end.
Steady away I'll keep buying the dips, in 5years time we'll see who's still laughing.
By Budvarr, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:48:22 PM
If the sky is falling in every asset class, stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, where is the safe haven for the recession we are about to enter? Booze and gambling????
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:49:04 PM
Investment Recommendation:
Sell Gold
Buy 9mm
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 10:55:09 PM
"Buy 9mm"
Don't make me laugh, most folk couldn't hit a barn door with a blunderbuss!!
Now even if someone can do 2" groups with a pistol at 10yds, very very few people are born killers.
To make a point, I have a nice fluffy bunny here, who could break its neck with their bare hands, and who has actually done it?
By Budvarr, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:14:57 PM
Richard said...
LMAO - "gold meltdown" - this bull has just begun to buck and kick - the weak sold -
My prediction - gold $1650 in one year.
It wouldn't surprise me. Though I'm not counting on it.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:19:41 PM
Anonymous said...
If the sky is falling in every asset class, stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, where is the safe haven for the recession we are about to enter?
Just lately, the US Dollar has been an excellent short-term profit-maker.
The gummint WANTS you to think the USD is the safe haven.
Hahahaha! What a joke.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:20:47 PM
Who on this board was investing or trading in 1974, or lost/bought real estate during the S&L crisis?
-------------------------------------
Snippets from the incomparible Richard Russell and http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/
June 13, 2006
...Here's one thought that's never left my mind, and this is it -- at the lows of 2002, stocks never got anywhere near undervaluation. In other words, at the 2002 lows there was nothing that even hinted of a classic, "great valuation" bear market bottom. In my opinion, the bear market that started in 2000 never ended. For that reason, I believe the end of the bear market lies somewhere ahead.
-----------------------------------
Gold -- The Fed undoubtedly feared and disliked the rise in gold to over 700. Regardless of what they say, in their guts the Fed crowd knows that surging gold is an indication of inflation. But what can the Fed think now that gold is collapsing? Thoughts of deflation must be entering their mind.
...Should they stay with their anti-inflation stance and raise rates once more, should they ease up on that stance, or should they be actively trying to re-stimulate the economy? And most important -- do they dare to raise rates again at the end of June?
-------------------------------------
Remember, huge amounts of debt are basically deflationary. Thus, not to inflate enough is to invite deflation. The massive edifice of debt means that the Fed must inflate -- it's a case of "inflate or die." The inflation-deflation pendulum is now swinging wildly. The Fed's back is against the wall. It must soon, very soon, reversal itself and move back to INFLATION MODE.
Remember, and I want to re-emphasize this -- nobody -- and I mean nobody -- is thinking in terms of what I talked about at the beginning of this site. I'm talking about this being a resumption of the primary bear market.
If I'm correct, we're going to be hearing the word "bankruptcy" coming up rather often as the bear market moves along. I remember at the frightening 1974 lows, the fear was that anything you bought or owned was a possible candidate for bankruptcy. That's how deep the fear went.
I want to remind subscribers that there's only one item that can't go bankrupt -- that item is real money -- gold. The truth of this statement will emerge as we move along. And it's something that every one of my subscribers should keep firmly in mind.
--------------------------------------
CONCLUSION -- The Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq are now all down for the year -- the whole year's gains have been wiped out as of today.
I don't care what the Fed or anyone else says, this is deflationary action in the markets, and the markets always lead the economy. If this brand of selling continues, it going to hit what's MOST VULNERABLE in the ECONOMY. Two items that are "most vulnerable" -- the dollar and debt.
Where are the islands of safety? The initial islands of safety are dollars and T-bills. The ultimate island of safety is gold. So far, investors are rushing to the dollar and T-bills (notice, not so much to bonds). The second phase of this bear market will see a major rush back to gold.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:20:49 PM
SidneyPrice said...
Dear autophx
Thanks for your thoughtful post...Keith's showmanship is icing on the cake.
It IS a very entertaining blog.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:22:51 PM
Where are the islands of safety? The initial islands of safety are dollars and T-bills. The ultimate island of safety is gold. So far, investors are rushing to the dollar and T-bills (notice, not so much to bonds). The second phase of this bear market will see a major rush back to gold.
Yes, let's ponder something.
For the stock market to fall as it has, and for the commodities to be sold as they have, some big players have to be involved.
These big players are building up $$$CASH$$$ in a BIG WAY.
What if they set their sights on the metals shortly, with plenty of cash in their pockets?
Big events are unfolding, hang on to your hat.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:25:11 PM
Cash is king = smart money
At least in the short term, "smart money" is going to cash. I predicted someone on the blog that when a recession/depression begins, people do NOT buy ANYTHING - gold, stocks, etc. . .T-bills or cash is where smart money will go. It is now clear that we are headed into a deep recession, and global slowdown. . .even oil is trending lower. When the smoke clears, there will be some great values in stocks. . .Motley Fool already was talking about shipping stocks today which yield 20% dividends have tanked also. . .lots of 7%,10% and 15% dividend yields out there right now. . .but people don't want to risk cas.
By Mark in San Diego, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:28:06 PM
RE: "Trillion dollar question: can Bernanke save the dollar whilst not causing a depression by collapsing the RE market."
I think this is indeed the most compelling question now. IMO, I think Bernanke will continue to impliment 'token' rate increases to give the appearance of fighting inflation. In the meantime, inflation will soar past interest rate hikes. This may serve the middle ground. Housing prices will 'back-into' the inflating dollar with possibly the least amount of pain and suffering.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:31:08 PM
For the record, I just purchased several pounds of silver at $9.82/ounce.
Could it go lower? You bet. Am I worried? Not one bit.
By autofx in Phx, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:32:45 PM
autofx you're probably right. The new guy at Treasury is an insider and that means they expect to need a man with his skills in the comming months. They have to bring long-term rates down and create som new ways for millions of people with no or negative equity to refi their mortgages. How will they buy off the bond crowd this time?
People who watch charts for a living tell me the S&P breaking under 1240 is a BIG deal, and the market is toast from a technical perspective.
There is no way the Fed can allow BOTH the stock market and housing values to tank simultaneously. They will "manage" the situation, and the price of gold will be their report card. How long can they stretch it out? My guess is another 5-10 years.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:36:58 PM
To make a point, I have a nice fluffy bunny here, who could break its neck with their bare hands, and who has actually done it?
---------------------------------------
My (then) girlfriend had a pet rabbit that tore up my rugs and chewed molding and wiring in my bachelor pad $230K Falls Church townhouse that Zillows out now for the ridiculous amount of $550K. In a fit of displaced anger, I did kill a "meat rabbit" with my bare hands while driving around with her in the Virginia countryside, cooked it and ate it.
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:47:48 PM
Biggest threat to the economy as per BB is inflation? Who is this inflation monster? (ItÂs the Fed) The Fed will fight inflation? During a war? With housing collapsing? Ha Ha The IMF just reported that Central Banks are double counting their Gold suppy. ÂSo much gold has been double counted already that if the all the owners asked for delivery of their gold, there wouldnÂt be enough of it in the world to make good on all the claims of ownership. Ha Ha A big paper game! Buy Physical Gold as a way to insure your portfolio over a long term. If you buy ETFÂs that will not convert to physical delivery you may be buying iouÂs that are backed by more iouÂs and joining in the paper game. If you have doubts about the financial management of the USA (which you should by now) then convert 5-20% of your liquid net worth into precious metals slowly over time by buying the dips. This time itÂs different! Ha Ha Gold has been at the center of monetary history for thousands of years. Gold has backed our currency since our founding up until in 1971 we found a new way based on faith. Now some Ivy League boys think that itÂs different and Gold is an archaic unsophisticated relic. Well itÂs not different.
By Tom, at Tuesday, June 13, 2006 11:57:13 PM
I sold GLD early this morning before things really started to get bad. I say don't catch a falling knife...wait for a little more stabilization in the price. We also need indications that the Fed will stop raising rates before we get some support in the price of precious metals. I'm thinking August will be about the right time to consider getting back in.
By Chris G, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:24:34 AM
Here's some good links to find out what's really going on.
http://tinyurl.com/z4cal
http://tinyurl.com/j7gl2
http://tinyurl.com/qqqcm
By Tom, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:31:36 AM
Chris G said...
I'm thinking August will be about the right time to consider getting back in.
--------------------------------------
Before you go back in, check out Jack Chan's signals and set-ups.
His free blog on stockcharts: http://tinyurl.com/wzrk
I am leveraged/margined and short right now but will reverse to long (or go flat) per Jack's signals. He does not favor leverage, and his system is best for unleveraged vehicles such as GLD or mutual funds, especially to control losses (3%).
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:46:28 AM
This is what happens when there is a bubble and a lot of clueless amateur speculators.
It is sad that people who talk about RE bubble are unable to see another bubble.
My personal theory is Kieth had to sell his condo to move to England. Knew he couldn't buy in for a year or two, and hope for the bubble to pop.
Nothing but shear luck.
His bubble blog will be over when he moves back home and needs to buy a house.
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:00:12 AM
The crash in copper is where it is at.
The drop in coper signifieds the Chia economic bing is slowing down.with a China slowdown. The world will have oil, timber, copper, coal. the world will be rich again.
By Dogcrap Green, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:02:55 AM
re: gold crash
Such are the ups and downs of speculative bubbles ... in any market.
By uknowwhoiyam, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:40:44 AM
Anonymous said...
How long can they stretch it out? My guess is another 5-10 years.
That's optimistic on their behalf!
What if the PetroEuro advocates have their way? The US dollar won't do well against that.
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:55:26 AM
Anonymous said...
To make a point, I have a nice fluffy bunny here, who could break its neck with their bare hands, and who has actually done it?
...I did kill a "meat rabbit" with my bare hands while driving around with her in the Virginia countryside, cooked it and ate it.
So what is the point? That you're some survivalist tough guy whom we should all be in awe of?
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 2:56:51 AM
Look at the first chart. You might say, Oh, gold had a nice runup, but look! It crashed! It melted down!
http://tinyurl.com/huy2f
Then look at this second chart to see what came after...
http://tinyurl.com/kzznz
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 3:15:20 AM
I bought my gold when it was still at $480, and most of my silver when it was at $9. I'm still in the black.
I think it's funny how this blog was full of people laughing at Keith for predicting a housing crash... now it's full of people laughing at Keith for making a little mistake over a Matterhorn movement in gold and silver. Geez louise.
Who's worse off... people who actually look at the economy, or those idiots who gobbled up RE at no money down and neg am and interest-only believing that RE only goes up??
Personally, I think all you scoffers are just jealous.
By BGManofID, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:23:13 AM
so bernanke will raise another .25 percent this month, but he better draft and redraft, proofread and spellcheck that damn statement that goes along with it. If there is one wrong syllable in that statement there will be bubbles bursting all over the place, including the bubble known as the world economy.
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:25:25 AM
And here is the Thinker's million dollar prediction, there will be an asset class that will start to skyrocket soon enough. The smart money will have to go somewhere next. I just don't yet know where, I will have to do a little more thinking and get back to you.
I completely agree with you, as I have been contemplating the same thing myself over the past few weeks. However, I'm pretty sure that it isn't hog futures, LOL.
On the long side, I'm thinking education providers should be a good play over the next couple years. When people get canned, some of them go back to school.
By Chris G, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:44:21 AM
Purchases
$325 in 2002, $350 in 2003, $400 in 2004
Is today painful ? Yes.
Am I selling? No.
Is this the end of the gold bull? NO !
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 6:42:03 AM
Is today painful ? Yes.
Am I selling? No.
Is this the end of the gold bull? NO!
Goldbugs with real faith are scrambling to buy more gold today, after yesterday's fall.
So, let's see how sure you are of the bull run ... how much more are you buying today?
By uknowwhoiyam, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 12:38:50 PM
Gold bugs like me have had a Gold stash for a long time now. I have no faith therefore I own Gold. I would buy more today if I didn't have any. Sit on the fence like a good boy where you feel safe and let Daddy Fed take care of you.
By Tom, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 1:42:44 PM
If you don't believe in gold , think of the logic of cutting down a three thousand dollar tree, turning it into pulp, then paper, put some ink on it then call it a billion dollars. Now that is a theory I want to tie my cart to.
By Anonymous, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 4:51:56 PM
I was talking with the nice old lady at the coin store today as I bought more gold coins. She said that silver is moving pretty well today after the recent drop. She also said that a lot of dealers are not selling at these prices.
Saw a yahoo news clip that said foriegn CBs will be getting into assets other than the US $, like gold. They will also be buying US mortgage backed securities. If a lot of these MBSs are underwater these foriegn CBs will be really pissed of at ANYTHING US $ based.
http://tinyurl.com/g4oc9
By Theyz gonna get reamed, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 6:36:41 PM
uknowwhoiyam said...
Goldbugs with real faith are scrambling to buy more gold today, after yesterday's fall.
So, let's see how sure you are of the bull run ... how much more are you buying today?
Faith? I don't think it requires faith, just education. The fundamental case, based on even a casual study of world economics, is overwhelmingly bullish for gold.
A year ago, when I was casually buying a little gold and silver, I made fun of "gold bugs" and thought they were a little off. Then I started paying attention to their writings on economic history and their compelling analyses of how the fiat money system has been abused by the governments of the world. And I started to understand what they were saying about the supply and demand picture.
If someone who thinks he's a shrewd trader/investor believes it's a bad idea to be buying metals on a beautiful pullback like this, it's not lack of faith.
It's ignorance.
By autofx in Phx, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 7:03:27 PM
I am not sure why people are buying silver coins vs gold coins. The premium on silver eagles is $2 - that is $12 coin at $10 spot. I am paying almost $40 premium on gold coins over spot, so at $600 for the gold coin vs $12 for the silver one that is 50x. 50x $2 premium is $100 premium for every $600 spent. I do not have any idea what the future will hold but I imagine that gold and silver will track pretty much evenly, give or take. If (and I hope it is IF) I ever have to sell coins it will be easier to unload a gold coin to get a couple of weeks spending money vs 50 silver coins. Maybe not, because who knows the future and I would only unload if there was a real need to.
BTW, the sell premium is 2% of spot at this shop. And the transactions are cash. These people do most of their business by mail and phone, very few walk-ups to their little window like I do. They deal all over the US. Amazing for a little shop. If anyone is interested the number is (256) 883-9004.
By Diversification is good, at Wednesday, June 14, 2006 7:57:58 PM
I was at the coin shop today and watched a couple bring in a wal-mart plastic bag 1/2 full of large bills in "bricks". They wheeled out 3 pretty boxes of coins.
I only got one. Wish I had a bag full of cash.
By Yes sir, three bags full, at Thursday, June 15, 2006 9:58:31 PM
Hi Friend! You have a great blog over here!
Please accept my compliments and wishes for your happiness and success!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my site:
credit center
It covers credit center related subjects.
Have a great day!
By All the best to you!, at Friday, June 23, 2006 9:04:00 AM
Hello,
Without much luck, I was searching for blogs about Travel when I happened across yours. It's a cool blog. Evidently you like telling it like it is! I have a really great ebay website that is easy to use that you may like. If you get a chance, check it out www.licensedbrandsclub.com.
By maverick, at Monday, June 26, 2006 12:32:36 AM
Nice blog. Keep up the good work.
Regards,
Stock Options Trader
make money from stock
By make money from stock, at Tuesday, July 04, 2006 2:25:35 PM
Your blog I found to be very interesting!
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I have a make real money start free
site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!
By make real money start free, at Friday, July 14, 2006 8:44:40 PM
Hi Blogger, I found your blog quite informative.
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my stock option software site.
Have a great week!
By stock option software, at Saturday, July 15, 2006 1:31:22 AM
Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!
I have a stock market report site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Greetings.
By stock market report, at Thursday, July 20, 2006 8:41:57 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]