Sunday, March 26, 2006

One of us is wrong

I say the dollar will surge, gold will crash. I like seeing this guy quote Warren Buffett. Quoting Warren Buffett is a sure sign he is a mindless idiot. Just my opinion, but I've always find that people that try to shove their views by quoting Warren buffet out of context, have no sound thought of their own.

From Yahoo.

Investing: Go for Gold and Silver, Not Green
by Robert Kiyosaki

I'm very bearish on the U.S. dollar and have been for years. That's why I have so many of them. This sounds like a contradiction, but let me explain. The reason I have so many dollars, even though I think they're worth less and less, is because I don't hang on to them. In my mind, cash is trash.

One of the reasons why we have this enormous gap between the world's haves and have-nots is because the have-nots value money -- they work for it, save it, cling to it, and lose it.

A friend just bought a new SUV. It's a beautiful vehicle. The problem is, the vehicle lost nearly 20% of its value the day he drove it off the lot. He's now in debt, paying off a vehicle that's dropping in value with a dollar dropping in value. He's a double loser.

Cash on the Move

Warren Buffett often says, "The best way to get rich is to not lose money." When people purchase consumer items such as a new car, use debt to finance things that shrink in value, or save U.S. dollars, they're losing money. Some people call it inflation, I call it devaluation.

Psychologically, the more Americans' cash -- and the things they buy with it -- decline in value, the more they worry about money. Many begin to work harder or, even worse, go deeper in debt purchasing more consumer items with sliding value. Unfortunately, many wind up with fewer and fewer dollars that continue to sink in value.

The reason I have more and more dollars is simply because I don't hold on to them. Instead, I do my best to keep my dollars moving into assets that are going up in value, not down.

In the late 1990s, when people were pouring money into the tech and dot-com stocks, my dollars moved into oil, gold, silver, and real estate, when prices were low. Today, because the dollar continues to drop in value, I keep moving my money into those same asset classes, although much more cautiously.

Impending Financial Disaster

The primary reason why I keep my dollars moving is because I'm bearish on the greenback. We have all heard the saying, "The U.S. dollar is backed by the full faith and confidence of the U.S. government." It is unfortunate that faith and confidence in the U.S. government is eroding. I don't believe Americans have the stomach to make the changes that are required to run a fiscally responsible government and save the dollar.


When President George W. Bush attempted to reform Social Security, that proposal was more unpopular with Americans than the Iraq war. People love their entitlements. When Bush pushed the Prescription Drug Benefit plan through, I decided the U.S. dollar is toast. To me, all hope of avoiding financial disaster was gone. The American people have voted.


My concern is that very soon, citizens of the world will tire of America's gross fiscal mismanagement and hesitate to take U.S. dollars. In order to keep the world interested in the greenback, interest rates must rise. When that happens, U.S. assets, especially paper assets such as U.S. stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and savings will drop in value. Some real estate prices will increase because replacement costs are high, but overvalued real estate will drop.

At the risk of sounding like a politician who flip-flops, there will still be paper assets and real estate that will rise in value. The secret to surviving in paper assets and real estate is to be very careful and very selective. People who diversify will lose. People who focus will win.

Americans Are Still Asleep

The secret to surviving the next few years is keeping your wealth in real money, not in the U.S. dollar. Buy things that hold their value and are exchangeable all over the world. Commodities such as gold and silver have a world market that transcends national borders, politics, religions, and race. A person may not like someone else's religion, but he'll accept his gold.

One of the reasons why I'm bullish on gold and silver is because the American public is still sound asleep to this asset class. Most Americans have no idea how or where to buy physical gold and silver. The outlets that sell gold and silver I have visited are already low on inventory.

If and when the American public wakes up to the reality that their dollars are not money, but a currency, the panic and stampede will begin. Should that happen, today's prices for gold and silver will look like bargains.


Today, very few people realize that Warren Buffett reportedly holds one of the largest caches of physical silver in America. He purchased silver in the late 1990s, when it was cheap -- and while others were criticizing him for not investing in tech stocks.

The Rewards of Detachment

As I write, hundreds of millions of dollars are searching for a safe home, a shelter that will protect the dollar's value from the crash. It's unfortunate that during this period, the rich will once again become richer, and the financially naïve will again worker harder for U.S. dollars, doing their best to save as many as they can, only to wind up with fewer and fewer dollars.

So the reason I have more and more dollars is simply because I don't hang on to them. During this volatile era, it's best to keep your wealth moving up as the dollar continues to head down.

Comments:
Gold is a useful industrial metal. Costs about $350/oz to manufacture on the margin. Only that high because of rising energy costs. As a shiny rock, I see no additional value but billions do. Everything above the cost of replacement is spuculation and fear premium. You are correct gold is overpriced.
 
My big concern withthe hype on buying gold, is that small investors have a difficult time over coming the cost of trading the actual commodity. They then figure it is better to buy the mine by buying mining stocks.

It cost a boat load of money to clean up a gold mine after the mining company utilizes arsnec (hope you can figure out the word I want here) to remove the gold from the ore.

The fact that timbers in the USA will no longer utilize arsnec to keep your house from being invading by fungus for 100 years. Instead copper will soon be used to treat timber. Should trip a red flag regarding the next industry to get hit by the arsnec scare. Replacing copper with arsnec to preserve timber is one minor cost increase. But what does removing arsnec from the gold mining equation do to the cost of mining an ounce of gold? The gold mines will have to come up with another chemical that chemicallay reacts to metals, then disovles in water, and then can be seperated from the metal be cooking the gold compound. There might be another solution, but my guess is there is a reason what the toxic chemical arsnec has been used for years.
 
Arsenic. Yeah, no problem. Vitamins are toxic at large doses. The poison part is just hype. Nitric acid and cyanide are the commonly used processes. Extraction is a dirty, nasty, dangerous business. Thus the $350/oz figure. I wouldn't worry about losing any one method.

You are correct about the small investor part. Transaction costs eat them alive. That's why I'm agnostic on the dollar. Everyone can move money and assets around the globe in seconds but that usually passes through the US dollar somewhere in the exchange. The dollar will certainly take a hit just because it is fashionable to beat up on America these days but any global uncertainty will send capital scurrying back. Being smart in a mob or in a stampede doesn't protect you from the mob or stampede.
 
your right,

don't know why i got cyanide mixed up with arsnec
 
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