Friday, January 13, 2006
The Toll Brothers Purchase of 5,485 acres
I ran the numbers as I see them for the Toll land purchase in Phoenix. Some assumptions I made were the land (quantities a guess) used for commercial and schools are a separate issue and will provide a profit, or break even.
5,485 acres
$312,000,000 total cost
$56,882 per acre
600 acres schools
600 acres commercial
4,285 acres residential
$243,741,112 Cost of land for residential
20,000 homes
$42,000 Infrastructure per house (roads/utilities)
$840,000,000 Total Infrastructure
$98,000 Cost of construction per house
$1,960,000,000 Total house construction
$15,000 Permits per House
$300,000,000 Total Permits
$3,343,741,112 Total Residential Cost
$315,000 median home price in the outskirts of Phoenix (used Gilbert's median to come up with fair value)
$6,300,000,000 Total Revenue
$2,956,258,888 Profit (residential only)
$167,187 Allowable sale price of Houses for breakeven
Note that home prices can fall in Phoenix and Toll will still make a good profit!!!
5,485 acres
$312,000,000 total cost
$56,882 per acre
600 acres schools
600 acres commercial
4,285 acres residential
$243,741,112 Cost of land for residential
20,000 homes
$42,000 Infrastructure per house (roads/utilities)
$840,000,000 Total Infrastructure
$98,000 Cost of construction per house
$1,960,000,000 Total house construction
$15,000 Permits per House
$300,000,000 Total Permits
$3,343,741,112 Total Residential Cost
$315,000 median home price in the outskirts of Phoenix (used Gilbert's median to come up with fair value)
$6,300,000,000 Total Revenue
$2,956,258,888 Profit (residential only)
$167,187 Allowable sale price of Houses for breakeven
Note that home prices can fall in Phoenix and Toll will still make a good profit!!!
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Total construction cost is site, permits, huouse = $155,000 or about $100 per square foot (this is a retirement are of Arizona).
We know how much the land is. My cost projections for site development are based on the more hilly terain I am use to. I am certain TOL's will be less.
The more trades we can breakout based on what the builders of 1,000 lot subdivision bid their work for. The less we hae to speculate with and the more accurate this number will be.
If you are a builder, speak up. If you are a clown running a google search for the cost of building a house from a kit, what can your opinion be worth?
We know how much the land is. My cost projections for site development are based on the more hilly terain I am use to. I am certain TOL's will be less.
The more trades we can breakout based on what the builders of 1,000 lot subdivision bid their work for. The less we hae to speculate with and the more accurate this number will be.
If you are a builder, speak up. If you are a clown running a google search for the cost of building a house from a kit, what can your opinion be worth?
It looks like I have a little psycho on my blog.
Some crazed nut became frustrated when cops told her they could not arrest someone based on stero types, so she posted his photo, stated he was a criminal of crimes he was never even arrested for, then ID him by posted his license plate #.
When I told her she was the criminal she started post my IP address.
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Some crazed nut became frustrated when cops told her they could not arrest someone based on stero types, so she posted his photo, stated he was a criminal of crimes he was never even arrested for, then ID him by posted his license plate #.
When I told her she was the criminal she started post my IP address.
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